Matty’s Minute: A November Market Update
The Tahoe-Truckee real estate market in October 2024 showcased both expected patterns and surprising developments. The month was characterized by a lackluster sales volume yet stable pricing, reflecting a market struggling with economic and political uncertainties yet absent any form of seller impatience or distress. This pattern, consistent most of 2024, saw total sales underperforming compared to both historical averages and the previous year. Factors contributing to this subdued activity include a tepid economy and typical pre-election apprehensions, as many potential buyers remain hesitant to commit until the political landscape becomes clearer.
A recurring theme throughout 2024 has been the concept of a "rising floor and a falling ceiling," with entry-level homes appreciating, while high-end properties either stagnate or declined slightly. However, October witnessed a reversal of this trend. The median sales price was $962,000, with more than half of all transactions occurring below $1 million, an increasingly scarce price point. Contrarily, remarkable sales were recorded in the luxury segment, highlighted by the sale of an Incline Village estate for an astonishing $62 million—one of the highest prices ever for a Tahoe lakefront property. Additionally, notable transactions included an $11 million sale in Martis Camp and a lakefront property on the West Shore that sold just below $10 million.
Tahoe lakefront property exemplifies the region’s market resilience. Year-to-date, 12 Tahoe lakefront properties have traded – exactly equaling the 12 month total for 2023. The median price for these transactions has been $7,750,000;exactly equaling the median lakefront price in 2023.
Despite expectations for a typical slowdown as the year winds down, there remains potential for increased market activity post-election. Such a scenario could be further propelled by a possible interest rate cut, stimulating a brief market rally. Seasonally, inventory has decreased as properties are either taken off the market for winter ski leases or sold, dropping supply by approximately 20% month-over-month. This reduction brings the inventory to a level similar to the end of the previous winter, with many homes likely to re-enter the market by spring. This reduced inventory mirrors levels seen at the end of last winter and could set the stage for a strategic buying opportunity if conditions align by spring 2025.
As fall transitions to winter, with colder temperatures and light snowfalls, anticipation for the season is growing. Regardless of the political and economic changes on the horizon, the timeless allure of Lake Tahoe stands as a constant.
Please contact me for a deeper dive into current market dynamics and/or to have a listing consultation or schedule a tour today.
Pray for snow,
-Matty