Matty’s Minute: A September Market Update
In a year where inverted economic indicators—like poor job reports signaling potential interest rate cuts—seem paradoxically favorable, it's surprising that the strongest month of 2024 for Tahoe-Truckee real estate still falls short of expectations.
August yielded over 130 residential transactions totaling nearly $250,000,000. These represent, by far, the largest numbers in 2024. The last month of equal transaction volume was ten months ago at the apex of the 2023 selling season. It has been a full year since the market last approached the quarter-billion-dollar mark in dollar volume. The correlation of the two, is the unlocking of higher dollar transactions, missing from the market throughout 2024.
A premium West Shore lakefront property traded for $15,000,000 while four homes in Martis Camp sold boosting the number of transactions in Tahoe’s most elite community by 50%. Old Greenwood similarly saw three transactions, each above $2 million in addition to strong closings in Gray’s Crossing and Schaffer’s Mill. The average sale price in August was $1,750,000, the highest for a single month since February 2023.
Nonetheless, this deal flow underperforms by 20% the historic average at the beginning of what should be a 90-period of peak activity for the local market. August was just the second month of 2024 to fall short of 2023.
Despite flagging activity, pricing remains exceptionally resilient. Average price is down just 1% year-over-year and only 5% from peak 2022 pricing. Median price has risen 7% to an all-time high above $1,100,000 driven by continued scarcity at the market’s entry level. Despite challenges like high interest rates, insurance conundrums and election malaise, there remains a noticeable absence of distress impacting property values downward.
The opposing forces of peaking inventory, now at a 4-year high, and the early phases of a reduced interest rate environment are likely to propel stable conditions through the end of 2024. The next 60 days will see the majority of the year’s lakefront closings, including several 8-figure transactions. Additionally, summer window shoppers will merge with pre-winter consumers for peak market activity. Nevertheless, even a meaningful surge in demand will not absorb nearly 600 active listings, making slight reductions in asking prices by sellers facing a lengthy winter increasingly likely.
September begins the local’s summer. A period of optimal weather and diminished crowds when Tahoe shows of its exceptional beauty. Rogue snowstorms are bookended by 80-degree days as the first hints of fall colors creep in. These magical conditions will continue to supersede any other drivers of supply and demand.
As always, please contact me for a deeper dive into current market dynamics for a specific community of interest and/or to schedule a listing consultation or a property tour today.
-Matty