Matty’s Minute: A November Market Update
Greetings;
The final quarter of 2023 has begun by holding consistent to the typical Tahoe Truckee sales cycles. The volume of transactions frequently peaks in August, holds firm in September, then wavers slightly before tapering into the year’s end.
While the volume of transactions has consistently lagged historical averages, the market’s rhythm has been steady. October closed 144 residential transactions. 10% below August’s total and just 4% behind September. Notably, this pattern is a return to the norm following the second half of 2022 wherein transaction volume fell dramatically after ending a years long bull run in the first half of the year.
In fact, October of 2022 began a run of 8 consecutive months during which the number of residential sales never crested 100. The total in the most recent 30 days equals a 54% increase over the same period a year ago.
Correspondingly, October is often the month is which prices begin to erode, if only slightly. This is often a reaction to sellers reducing price post-Labor Day and finding buyers in the period thereafter. 40% of October’s sales reduced asking price at least once prior to going into contract and sold 2% below the final asking price on average. The average sale price of $1,471,000 is 7% behind September’s; again, matching historical precedent almost to the decimal.
On an annualized basis, 2023’s average price of $1,558,000 is just 3% behind 2022 and remains a robust 4.5% ahead of 2021. Median price similarly lags by a mere 2%.
Inventory has begun its slow fade into the winter lows as properties either sell at reduced prices or come off the market in favor of ski leases or winter utility. Currently listings equal just 2.5 months of supply at current absorption, a dramatic decrease that returns the number of available properties back to a level equal to that of last spring.
Early snow flurries, cold temperatures, and a long memory of last year’s historic winter have consumers and residents primed for the season to come.