Matty’s Minute: An October Market Update

12672 Granite Drive: $619,000

As we reach the conclusion of the third quarter, the story of Tahoe Truckee real estate continues to be one of conflicting narratives.

Transaction volume peaked in Q3, typical of the season, but lags dramatically behind recent years and is on pace to deliver the fewest residential sales in a calendar year since 2008. However, home prices have remained generally stable as both average and median price are within 2% of 2022’s peak values. In fact, median prices have been almost entirely flat for the last 15 months.

Such dramatically reduced transaction volume typically leads to an overhang of supply, yet inventory remains below 400 active listings. This equates to less than 4 months of supply based upon the rate of absorption over the last 90 days.

Sellers, particularly those locked into exceptionally favorable loans, are completely without distress and generally unmotivated to sell at anything less than peak pricing showing great patience and tolerance for days on market.

Since Tahoe buyers are predominantly making a discretionary purchase, financing is a convenience rather than method of leveraging affordability. As a result, high interest rates are not the stymying factor that they may be in primary communities. However, even cash-capable consumers are showing discretion in purchases given the flat performance of the local market. As a result, the sales that are taking place represent exceptional product that offer immediate utility.

September experienced 145 residential sales, nearly equally the prior month as the highest quantity in over 18 months. Of these, 77 sales, or 53%, were for prices greater than $1 million while 25 exceeded $2 million. Of these, all but 7 are in communities brought to market in the last decade or so. The others including a $10 million Tahoe lakefront as well as waterfront property on Donner Lake and along the Truckee River as well as several unique acreage properties within newer vintage homes.

Q4 often sees activity taper as buyers go into hibernation until spring and unmotivated sellers make arrangements for ski leases or winter usage. However, savvy consumers willing to make strategic offers may find the year’s best purchasing opportunities as the motivated sellers will begin to reveal themselves in the marketplace via price reductions or more aggressive negotiating windows.